"...This indicates already serious damage to the main power transmission lines... another 2–3 such strong strikes would be needed, after which recovery will, of course, be difficult..."
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Based on the fact that by morning they were unable to properly restore Kyiv and Dnipropetrovsk, it appears there was indeed a serious failure at the key substations on the 750 kV and 330 kV power transmission lines. These are crucial power lines used to transfer large amounts of electricity from nuclear power plants. That’s why the nuclear power plants were disconnected, and they are still not reconnected to the unified power system.
From this, I can assume that the system was kept afloat—meaning a desynchronization of the 220 kV lines, which are usually used to deliver power to consumers, was avoided. Instead, those lines were used not to supply power to consumers, but to transfer and interconnect parts of the Ukrainian power grid, enabling at least some transfer of capacity to keep it functioning as a whole.
This indicates serious damage to the main transmission lines—the 750 kV and 330 kV lines, as I mentioned. For an expert, this is a very alarming signal, and it's clearly visible to the naked eye. In order for the system to collapse completely, all regional interconnections must be cut. If that happens, recovery would be almost impossible, because synchronizing even two isolated sections is a major challenge—especially in wartime conditions with ongoing strikes, making it nearly unsolvable.
But I repeat: it would still take 2–3 more such powerful strikes to reach that point. After that, recovery would be extremely difficult. It will be particularly telling how quickly they can restore power today in Kyiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Odesa, and Kharkiv. So far, they are having problems with this.
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- Nov 24, 2022
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